Revolution in Automotive Industry to Electric Vehicles: Trends, Motives, and Investment Opportunities

By Sorawit Tangjai – Application Engineer, ISID South East Asia
11/9/2021

Talking about the history of the first automobile vehicle that used gasoline and was placed in the first production line, probably wouldn’t mention it at all, Mr. Carl Benz, at Benz Patent Motor Car, had his first automobile production on January 29, 1886. However, the evolution of its engine and design, yet had changed by a marginal fraction, and seemingly automotive industry there has not much changed within a century util this recently year.

First automobile by Mr. Carl Benz. (Daimler. (n.d.). Benz Patent Motor Car: The first automobile (1885–1886). Daimler. Retrieved November 19, 2021, from https://www.daimler.com/company/tradition/company-history/1885-1886.html.) 

According to this statistical data, there is an inclination of a new trend to EV (Hofstätter, T., Krawina, M., Mühlreiter, B., Pöhler, S., & Tschiesner, A. (2020, October 27). Reimagining the auto industry's future: It's now or never. McKinsey & Company. Retrieved November 19, 2021, from https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/reimagining-the-auto-industrys-future-its-now-or-never.)

In the year of 2021, it cannot deny that electric vehicle sales market has taken all over places throughout the globe. Tesla was ranked as the best-selling electric vehicle manufacturer in the world and the first half of 2021. This translates into the highest market share of about 15 percent of among other competitors, such as VW Group, GM, BMW Group, Daimler AG, etc.

Meanwhile, the car sales market has fallen, but the growth of electric cars has reversed compared to combustion engine car. Electric vehicles grew 41% from 2019 and global sales of about 3 million vehicles last 2 years, bringing more than 10 million electric vehicles on the road by the end of 2020.

In the meantime, the outlook for electric vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2021 remains bright, with global electric vehicle sales increasing by about 140% compared to the same period in 2020, driven by sales in China of around 500,000 vehicles. In Europe, around 450,000 units, and sales in the United States more than doubled compared to the first quarter of 2020.

Sales forecast for Thai Automotive Industry (https://www.krungsri.com/en/research/industry/industry-outlook/Hi-tech-Industries/Automobiles/IO/io-automobile-20)

The International Energy Agency (EIA) has also released an estimate for the future of electric vehicles through its Global EV Outlook 2021, believing that by the end of this decade, 2030, there will be a total of 145 million electric vehicles globally. At Bloomberg NEF, new car sales in 2030 are expected to be 28% electric and up to 58% by 2040 (ไพรไพศาลกิจ กิจพณ. (2021, May 21). รถยนต์ไฟฟ้า : แนวโน้ม แรงผลักดัน และโอกาสการลงทุน. SET Investnow. Retrieved November 19, 2021, from https://www.setinvestnow.com/th/knowledge/article/198-investment-opportunity-from-automotive-industry).

From the above information, it can be seen that electric cars are growing exponentially. Even the price of electric vehicles (Electric Vehicle: EV) is still higher than petrol cars. (Combustion engine), but the trend of the popularity of electric cars has continued to increase due to many factors as follows:

EVs are growing exponentially (https://www.krungsri.com/en/research/industry/industry-outlook/Hi-tech-Industries/Automobiles/IO/io-automobile-20)

1.Solving environmental problems and pollution: Whether it's solving the problem of PM2.5 dust or trying to reduce emissions. Electric cars have better efficiency and lower emissions than combustion engine cars.

2.Creating a New Industry (New S-Curve): The infrastructure of electric vehicles is also suitable for installing various electronic devices and sensors, especially the Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) that helps reduce accidents. And pave the way to the Autonomous Vehicle in the future, as its known, the United States has potential companies and there is a semiconductor industry that is more likely to benefit from the growth of the electric vehicle and autonomous vehicles industry than any other country.

3.China's strategic goals: which is a country with a large automotive upstream industry jumps into the competition in the electric vehicle industry that is just beginning to grow and has no winner. It's a better strategic decision than trying to compete in internal combustion technology, which European and US companies have more advantages.

4.Economic reasons and sources of energy. Europe is now able to generate more electricity from renewable energy than fossil fuel electricity. To help reduce the use of oil that needs to be imported from outside the region. Therefore, it is a better strategic choice.

5.Reasons for the value of use: Even though investing in electric cars has a higher initial cost. But it has lower fuel and maintenance costs making use in the industrial sector. These include buses, freight forwarders, taxis, and highly-used short-term car rental services. It is likely to benefit or pay back faster from using electric vehicles. In addition, currently, there are more models of electric cars to choose from. Including the cost of batteries continues to decline.

The development trend of electric vehicles in Thailand
Although Thailand is one of the world's major automobile manufacturing centers. But electric cars still have a delay in development due to many factors as follows:

Trends and action plan of Thai Electric Vehicles industry ((https://www.krungsri.com/en/research/industry/industry-outlook/Hi-tech-Industries/Automobiles/IO/io-automobile-20))

1.Delayed response from major car manufacturers in Thailand: because it creates a new investment burden While many entrepreneurs have not returned their investments in the past. Entrepreneurs do not want to rush into new industries. Or try to push electric cars that still use internal combustion technology, such as hybrid electric cars. or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, etc.

2.Severe impact on the automotive supply chain in Thailand: due to the smaller number of parts Will affect many SME businesses, which in this group are mostly small-medium businesses. with no potential to adapt

3.Policy inaccuracies: Even the excise tax rate will be reduced in accordance with the level of carbon dioxide emissions. but still higher than the excise tax of 1 ton of eco-cars and pickup trucks, resulting in the price of electric vehicles the battery (both hybrid and battery) doesn't drop enough to motivate consumers.

4.Electric cars imported from China have both positive and negative impacts. According to the 2005 ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (before electric vehicle technology became popular), tax exemptions for the export and import of other vehicles were specified, effective from 2005. In 2010, the entire battery electric vehicle (BEV) was imported from China. No customs duty (From the normal rate of 80%) in the positive view of the selling price of electric cars imported from China It will be more attractive and cheaper than many domestic internal combustion vehicles. generation, thus having the opportunity to popularize electric cars, but in the negative, this will hinder the promotion of the domestic electric vehicle manufacturing industry. and make electric cars from China have a chance to become a market leader Due to the market entry first (First Mover Benefit)

Opportunity to invest in electric vehicles in Thailand

1.The Thai automotive industry is in a very challenging situation. This is because most of them are related to automobile parts that use internal combustion technology. which is likely to be affected by the increasing popularity of electric vehicles. At the same time, among the manufacturers of parts that are not affected by fuel technology, such as lamps, lamps, car seats and air conditioning systems, etc. Even technically there is no technology risk. But the competitive trend of all imported electric cars from China This can cause medium-term strategic risks from the movement of supply chains in related businesses from Thailand to foreign countries. 

2.For groups that are likely to benefit from the growth trend of electric vehicles Most of them are players outside the automotive industry. Whether it is the electronics industry such as printed circuit boards, sensors, semiconductors. electric charge system, etc., energy industry invested in the battery manufacturing business charging station and logistics industry. This is due to the lower costs of using electric vehicles. It may also have a short-term positive for manufacturers of commercial electric vehicles such as trucks, buses, taxis that use electric power, etc.

Reference:
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/reimagining-the-auto-industrys-future-its-now-or-never 
https://www.statista.com/statistics/541390/global-sales-of-plug-in-electric-vehicle-manufacturers/ 
https://www.setinvestnow.com/th/knowledge/article/198-investment-opportunity-from-automotive-industry 
https://www.daimler.com/company/tradition/company-history/1885-1886.html#:~:text=On%20January%2029%2C%201886%2C%20Carl,1. 
https://www.krungsri.com/en/research/industry/industry-outlook/Hi-tech-Industries/Automobiles/IO/io-automobile-20